Archive for the ‘yoda's opinion’ Category
I asked the driver who was parked next to me if he knew his passenger side steering tire was totally bald over half way across and all the way around the tire.
His response was that he had ordered a tire and would change it when he got home.
I asked him if he understood that it was illegal and unsafe to drive on the tire, he said he couldn’t afford to buy a tire now!
I hope he made it without wrecking!
I wandered into the room still upset that my name had somehow been dropped from the list of speakers waiting my chance to address the representatives of the FMCSA on the subject of “Hours of Service.” The meeting had already resumed. “Remember you are addressing Anne Ferro and the leadership of the office that single handedly could begin the process of restoring our trade to normalcy.” I kept repeating to myself. I waited and soon they were allowing me to speak.
My comments can be seen at http://www.tvworldwide.com/events/dot/100326/ I start speaking about 9 minutes into the video! Read the rest of this entry »
It is the most waited on, most attended, and biggest show in the trucking industry. MATS in Louisville.
I wanted to hear the whys and facts from the FMCSA so I attended their seminar. I was pleasantly surprised to see Anne Ferro in the room monitoring and listening to the flow of conversation back and forth between Steve and his listening audience.
It was typical MATS real experts from the agency giving real facts and listening to drivers and members of the industry react to those facts. These seminars make MATS the must place to go each spring for people who spend their lives traveling wanting the real answers.
I asked my own question when they took questions. I admit I was totally unsatisfied with the response I got, but then dealing with the government is like wrestling with a snake in the dark. You might get hurt, you never know what is coming next, and none of it seems to make sense until you look at the motives and agendas that led our government to think the way they do. Logic from the office suit seams twisted to those of us fighting in the trenches to achieve safety while dealing with the pressures those who think only of bottom line numbers put on people working in our industry.
In typical justification Steve diverted the flow of thought away from the issue I raised by providing a different form of that topic as coming from a colleague. Freshman debate class taught me to recognize the tactic, but my question hung out there unanswered, and still calls for an answer.
“12/11/2009
Heavy duty trucks registered the best sales of the year in November, improving 4.2 percent from the month before. November marked the third consecutive month-to-month improvement as some truck buyers eye savings ahead of the more costly, 2010 emissions-compliant equipment.
According to figures provided to The Trucker by Ward’s Automotive, November Class 8 sales totaled 8,861 trucks in the United States, up from 8,500 trucks in October, which had been the best month of 2009. “ The Trucker
Seems like a nice feel good piece hinting at recovery doesn’t it?
But wait.. further down in the same article they give a starker view of those numbers.
“For the first 11 months of 2009, 83,241 Class 8 trucks have been sold in the U.S. (down 31 percent from last year), the worst showing on the Ward’s books dating to 1985.
In 1991, the previous low, 88,422 trucks were sold in the same period. By comparison, in the 2006 record year, 257,446 trucks were sold through October — meaning a decline this year of 67.7 percent from the peak three years ago.
Based on maintaining the current rate of decline from 2008, projected sales are about 92,000 units for 2009, versus 133,473 in 2008. In 2006, 284,008 big trucks were sold in the U.S. “
Last year they told it differently, and were less optimistic.
“12/12/2008
Sales of Class 8 trucks fell by more than 12 percent in November from the month before, and with a month to go 2008 is likely to be an even more dismal year for big trucks than woeful 2001.
Again further down in the article.
Still, for the year so far, the industry has sold only 120,726 trucks, trailing 2007’s 11-month total (138,931 trucks) by 13.1 percent.
More strikingly, compared to 2006 record sales, the total is down almost 138,000 trucks so far, a 53 percent slide. Projecting a full 12 months would leave this year at just under 132,000 trucks versus 284,008 two years ago. In 2001, the bottom of the previous industry downturn, there were 139, 576 trucks sold (128,178 through November). “
One might think these numbers mean little, unless you apply them as a look at the picture of fleet maintenance.
The Department of labor says 90,000 employee drivers have left the industry in 2009, OOIDA says 200,000 independent drivers have also left. So what number of trucks would have to be sold to keep just the normal rotation of equipment in force for those remaining in the industry.
We know that larger OTR fleets have gone into regional mode causing better utilization of equipment on shorter hauls. This will allow some stretching of tractor life in the fleet if their depreciation schedule doesn’t cause them to trade anyway.
We also know that port drayage fleets have mandated replacements driving vehicle sales that would not have happened without those government forced replacement mandates.
What then is the reality of fleet aging and replacement. What market other than government forced replacement is there for the class 8 manufacturers to adjust their future sales projections on? If anyone is even whispering these things no one is discussing them openly.
Take away the forced replacement of equipment by the state of California and the ports what sales would there be for class 8 trucks?
Just my opinion! Yoda
